CompuBox Post Analysis: Pavlik-Taylor II

[scappoosejohn]

Someone brought up the subject about CompuBox and how wrong they were. I just read this article from Boxing Scene and thought it might clear the air a bit. Anyway, check it out and let me know what you all think. I'm certain that there will be some who disagree.


by CompuBox

The rematch between Kelly Pavlik and Jermain Taylor, last Saturday at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, wasn’t as explosive as their original encounter last September, but the result was largely the same as "The Buckeye Banger" banged out a unanimous decision in their 12-round catch-weight bout.

Before the fight Taylor and his new lead trainer Ozell Nelson promised changes, and, for the most part, they delivered – at least in a strategic sense. Taylor stayed away from the ropes and his punches were more eye-catching and explosive than Pavlik’s. The result was a decision defeat that was disputed by some members of the press, and his improved performance in comparison to the first fight didn’t significantly harm his standing as an attraction.

Unfortunately for Taylor, his numbers simply weren’t large enough to overcome Pavlik’s steady work. In the first fight, Taylor was 182 of 369 (49 percent) overall, landing 37 percent of his jabs (77 of 207) and connecting on an impressive 65 percent of his power punches (105 of 162). In the rematch, Taylor was 10 percent less accurate overall (178 of 456, 39 percent), and he landed fewer power punches in 12 rounds, (76), than he did in six-plus rounds in the first fight (105). At 35 percent (102 of 292), Taylor’s jab accuracy was down two points from the first fight and his 38 punches per round were 15 less than in last September’s bout. Taylor never reached double digits in terms of power connects while Pavlik surpassed that threshold seven times.

While Pavlik’s punches at 164 didn’t carry the same snap and power, his numbers were a mixed bag when compared to the first match. Last September, Pavlik was 180 of 460 (39 percent) overall, connecting on 100 of his 210 power punches (48 percent) and 80 of his 250 jabs (32 percent). This time, Pavlik was more active (70 punches per round as opposed to 66 in the first fight) but less accurate. His jab was two percentage points down (32 percent) and his power numbers was 14 percent lower (34 percent). This can be attributed to Taylor’s increased mobility, which made it more difficult for Pavlik to draw a bead and tee off. Still, he was by far the more active fighter and he landed enough significant blows to persuade the judges to award him the rounds.

One change in Pavlik’s approach was how his punches were distributed. In the first bout there was a 55-45 split between jabs and power punches, but in the rematch it shifted slightly upward to 57-43, which is reflective of Pavlik’s more measured approach in terms of style. Still, Pavlik’s significantly higher work rate paid statistical dividends: He out-landed Taylor in 10 of the 12 rounds, with the third round even at 17 connects and Taylor winning only the 10th round with a 15-13 edge. Pavlik’s best round came in the eighth when he landed 35 of 71 (49 percent), including 21 of 39 jabs (54 percent) and 14 of 32 power shots (44 percent), all highs for the fight. Pavlik out-jabbed Taylor in 10 of 12 rounds and in eight of 12 in power punches.

For the record, Taylor’s best statistical round was the fifth, which saw him land 20 of 43 overall (47 percent), including 14 of 27 jabs (52 percent) but only 6 of 16 power shots. His best power shot round was the sixth, which saw him land 8 of 10 (80 percent).
Most observers agree that Pavlik was by far the stronger and fresher fighter in the final two rounds and the numbers bear them out. Pavlik out-landed Taylor 44-21 in the 11th and 12th, including a telling 30-11 advantage in power punches. Pavlik bolstered that advantage by nearly doubling Taylor’s overall output (141-74) and more than doubling his power punch volume (75-36).

For Pavlik, the equation was a simple one: Activity + Effectiveness = Victory.

[Tommy]

My biggest problem with compubox Scap is the term 'power shot'. It's very misleading.

[scappoosejohn]

My biggest problem with compubox Scap is the term 'power shot'. It's very misleading.

Agreed. It's a term widely used but has no real definition. Once, HBO explained it as anything other than a jab. Well there are a lot of punches thrown in a fight that aren't jabs but still don't make it to what I would call a power shot. And I'm not certain just where the cut off point should be for one. Maybe jabs and punches should qualify and throw out this other stuff.

[Mayz]

Compubox is all well and good for a guideline or for commentary purposes the way it is, but there's simply no way they can count the punches properly in real time and with so many different styles. You do see clear bias in the compubox numbers sometimes as well, obviously depending on the dude counting it, who he favours, which style he can dissect better etc.

These figures would just make so much more sense if they did the numbers after the fight with the use of slowmos and replays etc. It is their job after all!

[fsteddi]

My biggest problem with compubox Scap is the term 'power shot'. It's very misleading.

agree Tommy, a lot of Pavliks output were slaps or fast pitty pats to catch the judges eyes, and his true count of power shots was imo very low